Turkish media outlets had earlier reported that the Turkish General Staff has prepared a five-step plan, also known as the “Hot Plan,” for a large-scale military intervention into northern Syria. Recent developments indicate that this plan is well under way and being tailored to new circumstances in light of the fall of Assad rule and establishment of a transitional regime in Damascus.
Manbij and Ain Issa: Key Battlefronts
Manbij was a key target of Turkey’s campaign. Turkey and its ally, the Syrian National Army (SNA; formerly known as Free Syrian Army), launched Operation Dawn of Freedom in November 2024 to April 2025 capturing Manbij and Tell Rifaat after intense battles with the led Kurdish Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF). This operation sought to drive the S.D.F. from west of the Euphrates and create a 30-kilometer-deep buffer zone on the Turkish-Syrian border.
The Ain Issa area, with its strategic position on the M4 highway, is still a flashpoint. Turkish drones and artillery have already struck SDF positions in the area multiple times, and on Jan. 4, Turkish warplanes targeted areas near Kobani and the Tishrin Dam. The goal of the attacks is to capture an important strategic asset and cripple Kurdish supply lines.
Escalation and Airstrikes
Throughout January and February 2025, Turkish troops increased operations with airstrikes over Manbij and Kobani countryside targeting oil installations and bridges. SDF forces retaliated against the Turkish-backed factions and destroyed armored vehicles and tanks near the Tishrin Dam, resulting in heavy injuries. Villages in Ain Issa and Tel Abyad also came under heavy artillery fire, causing civilian displacement.
Strategic Objectives
Turkey’s goals remain consistent:
-
Prevent Kurdish autonomy in the post-Assad Syria by breaking up the SDF and its backers.
-
Create a zone of security to enable the return of refugees and decrease threats to the civilian population from across border.
- Expand influence via military entrenchment and rebuilding projects; for example, Turkish air bases in central Syria (T4 airbase ) under a planned joint-defense pact with Syria’s transitional government.
Political Shifts
By March 2025, Ankara and Damascus were in talks to accommodate YPG militants into the Syrian army as part of a deal that would also allow Turkish military installations in eastern Syria. The move is designed to establish a more secure border, and rid it of any YPG presence, which Turkey sees as an offshoot of the PKK.
Future Outlook
Though Turkey has carved out large areas of territory, the situation is fluid. The Kurds are still fighting, and U.S. efforts to mediate diplomatically would hold down further escalation. Ankara, meanwhile, is coming under international criticism for the SNA’s.reatmentofcivilians and abuse of human rights in areas it has liberated.